The Perfect Storm: Understanding the Bike Boom

Like it or not, bicycles and cycling are enjoying a giant media moment, and yesterday’s post is a good example of that. Since we seem to be in the midst of another bike boom (at least in terms of cultural popularity and media attention), I think it’s crucial to understand why this boom is taking place. For one thing, by understanding it we can make the most of it. More importantly, though, we can also take measures to keep out some of the interlopers who seem to be hopping aboard for the wrong reasons.

To that end, I set to work on devising a formula to explain the bike boom. Despite having no mathematical or scientific ability and only limited intelligence, I’m a strong believer in formulas, mostly because I think they look good. Here is my almost-assuredly incorrectly expressed Bike Boom Formula (or BBF):

This is how it breaks down:

Credibility (C)

Cycling has a lot of mainstream credibility now. This credibility is threefold:

It’s Fashionable

I don’t know if tight pants are back in style because they’re easier to ride bikes in, but one thing I do know is that fixed gear fashion is hot, hot, hot! (Despite, or perhaps because of, the fact that it’s lame, lame, lame.) I mean seriously, it’s at the point where I see people wearing rolled-up jeans, cycling caps, and Fabric Horse U-Lock holsters with no bicycles anywere in sight. (And yes, I’m the sort of person who goes outside and looks.) I’m sure some of these people simply haven’t yet realized their bikes were just stolen, but that can’t be the case with all of them.

It’s Politically Correct

When confronted with a crisis, people love nothing more than to take meaningless action. It makes them feel like they’re doing something to help, even though they’re not. For example, what’s the first thing people do during any type of emergency? Stockpile bottled water! Hey, I've lived through emergencies, and the only thing I regretted not having more of was beer. Similarly, according to Al Gore we’re now in the midst of an environmental crisis, so people are “going green.” This apparently involves buying certain expensive gourmet foods over others and attending benefits, lectures, and screenings put on by people who travel by private jet. Oh, it also involves bikes. Not riding them necessarily, but just generally evoking the imagery and ethos of cycling. Whatever.

It’s a Lighting Rod to a Tasty Demographic

Al Sharpton knows that if you want to reach a bunch of young, privileged, liberal people there’s no better place to do it than at a cycling event. It doesn’t even matter if what you’re selling has nothing to do with cycling--especially when it comes to Critical Mass, which is comprised of crusaders in search of a cause. Just think of Critical Mass as a big stoop sale, and Sharpton’s some guy who drives up with a car full of stuff and asks, “Hey, can I put some of my things out too?”

Relative Accessibility (RA)

As a sport, cycling can be expensive, but it’s not that expensive. Especially if you’re wealthy. (As we saw yesterday.) Yachting is expensive. Auto racing is expensive. Polo is expensive. (Horse polo, not bike polo. Bike polo is dorky, but it’s not expensive.) Cycling, though, is a perfect sport for the rich dabbler because it really doesn’t cost that much to walk into a shop and fully outfit yourself with top-of-the-line gear. Sure, when I say “doesn’t cost that much” I mean low five figures, but when you consider that even a used yacht costs over half a million dollars you can start to understand what I mean. You have to be really rich to dabble in that. So especially now, when the very rich want to continue to appear very rich even while their fortunes are shrinking slightly, cycling is a logical choice for a hobby.

Of course, the fact is many of us are resentful towards these people. To that end, in light of the unveiling of the new Dura Ace, I call upon Shimano to set a retail price of $250,000. (Campagnolo and SRAM are sure to follow with their top-end groups.) If high-end cycling becomes competitive with yachting price-wise then we should be able to shake some of these people off. Ultegra and lower can remain “reasonably” priced. There’s pretty much no difference between Ultegra and Dura Ace anyway, so real cyclists can just opt for Ultegra, but the ultra-rich crowd looking to get into a lifestyle sport cheap will probably decide the price of entry is too high and can instead go shopping for polo ponies.

High Gas Prices (HGP)

Credibility and Relative Accessibility by themselves are not quite incendiary, but when you factor in High Gas Prices the mixture becomes highly volatile and the reaction is explosive. Indeed, Streetsblog reported recently that there’s a bike shortage in New York City, which is being attributed to people buying bicycles in the face of rising gas prices. Of course, the reality is that bikes are the bottled water of the energy crisis, and like that water they will probaly just wind up sitting in the basement, but for the moment people are buying and so we have ourselves a bike boom (BB).

Of course, the aftermath of the boom remains to be seen. Is this just the beginning, or is it the Apocalypse?